Iceland's Scandinavian-type social-market economy combines a capitalist structure and free-market principles with an extensive welfare system. Prior to the 2008 crisis, Iceland had achieved high growth, low unemployment, and a remarkably even distribution of income. The economy depends heavily on the fishing industry, which provides 40% of export earnings, more than 12% of GDP, and employs 7% of the work force. It remains sensitive to declining fish stocks as well as to fluctuations in world prices for its main exports: fish and fish products, aluminum, and ferrosilicon. Iceland's economy has been diversifying into manufacturing and service industries in the last decade, particularly within the fields of software production, biotechnology, and tourism. Abundant geothermal and hydropower sources have attracted substantial foreign investment in the aluminum sector and boosted economic growth, although the financial crisis has put several investment projects on hold. Much of Iceland's economic growth in recent years came as the result of a boom in domestic demand following the rapid expansion of the country's financial sector. Domestic banks expanded aggressively in foreign markets, and consumers and businesses borrowed heavily in foreign currencies, following the privatization of the banking sector in the early 2000s. Worsening global financial conditions throughout 2008 resulted in a sharp depreciation of the krona vis-a-vis other major currencies. The foreign exposure of Icelandic banks, whose loans and other assets totaled more than 10 times the country's GDP, became unsustainable. Iceland's three largest banks collapsed in late 2008. The country secured over $10 billion in loans from the IMF and other countries to stabilize its currency and financial sector, and to back government guarantees for foreign deposits in Icelandic banks. GDP fell 6.8% in 2009, and unemployment peaked at 9.4% in February 2009. GDP fell 3.4% in 2010. Since the collapse of Iceland's financial sector, government economic priorities have included: stabilizing the krona, reducing Iceland's high budget deficit, containing inflation, restructuring the financial sector, and diversifying the economy. Three new banks were established to take over the domestic assets of the collapsed banks. Two of them have foreign majority ownership, while the State holds a majority of the shares of the third. British and Dutch authorities have pressed claims totaling over $5 billion against Iceland to compensate their citizens for losses suffered on deposits held in the failed Icelandic bank, Landsbanki Islands. Iceland agreed to new terms with the UK and the Netherlands to compensate British and Dutch depositors, but the agreement must first be approved by the Icelandic President. Iceland began accession negotiations with the EU in July 2010; however, public support has dropped substantially because of concern about losing control over fishing resources and in reaction to measures taken by Brussels during the ongoing Eurozone crisis.
GDP (purchasing power parity): $11.82 billion (2010 est.) country comparison to the world: 145 $12.24 billion (2009 est.) $13.15 billion (2008 est.) note: data are in 2010 US dollars
GDP (official exchange rate): $12.59 billion (2010 est.)
GDP - real growth rate: -3.5% (2010 est.) country comparison to the world: 210 -6.9% (2009 est.) 1.4% (2008 est.)
GDP - per capita (PPP): $38,300 (2010 est.) country comparison to the world: 25 $39,900 (2009 est.) $43,200 (2008 est.) note: data are in 2010 US dollars
GDP - composition by sector: agriculture: 5.5% industry: 24.7% services: 69.9% (2010 est.)
Exports - commodities: fish and fish products 40%, aluminum, animal products, ferrosilicon, diatomite
Imports - commodities: machinery and equipment, petroleum products, foodstuffs, textiles
Imports - partners: Norway 12.97%, Netherlands 8.62%, Germany 8.3%, Sweden 8.03%, Denmark 7.27%, US 6.94%, China 4.98%, UK 4.55%, Brazil 4.09% (2009)
Summary extracted from IMF Report - Iceland: Sixth Review Under the SBA and Proposal for Post-Program Monitoring (August 2011)
The exchange rate has stabilized. After a sharp depreciation at the onset of the crisis, the krona settled at a competitive level, boosting net exports and avoiding a further deterioration in private and public sector balance sheets which would have had a severe adverse impact on domestic demand. Capital controls played a vital role in preventing exchange rate overshooting, and the orderly current account adjustment and incipient return of confidence has enabled the authorities to begin liberalizing the controls.
Significant progress has been made in putting public finances on a sustainable path. The authorities have taken 10 percent of GDP in revenue and expenditure measures, corresponding to a primary balance improvement of 6 percent between 2009 and 2011. This very impressive consolidation program—undertaken in the midst of the deepest recession in Iceland’s modern history—has placed the public debt ratio on a declining path and made the authorities’ goal of a public debt ratio of 60 percent of GDP over the longer-term achievable.
A new and significantly smaller banking system has emerged from the crisis, with substantial private sector involvement. The banking system now holds assets of about 200 percent of GDP (one-fifth the size of the system pre-crisis) and is comprised of 14 institutions (23 before the crisis). This downsizing was largely achieved by transferring domestic assets and deposits to new institutions and imposing losses on general unsecured creditors. Work to address legacy vulnerabilities in the financial system (including the high level of nonperforming loans, loan and deposit concentration, and financial imbalances) is progressing. In particular, household and corporate debt restructuring is finally advancing and will help restore bank and private sector balance sheets.
Recent economic developments
A tentative economic recovery is underway. The economy returned to modest growth in the first quarter of 2011, mainly on account of an increase in inventories of marine products, which will be released as exports over the course of the year.
High frequency indicators suggest a strong pickup in the second quarter. Consumption is supported by higher wages, social benefits, and a temporary interest rate subsidy; and investment is being boosted both by projects in the power-intensive sectors and a broad-based pickup in other sectors. However, the positive impact on GDP growth is being moderated by rapid import growth (driven mainly by higher domestic demand). The unemployment rate dropped to 6.7 percent in June from 7.6 percent in the same period last year (and from 7.4 percent in May).
The Icelandic State took control of the three largest Icelandic banks following the financial collapse in October 2008. Most of the domestic assets of these banks were moved to new entities established for this purpose. A deal was negotiated with the creditors of two of the old banks whereby they acquired majority ownership in the new banks as compensation for transferred assets; creditors of the third bank acquired a minority stake in its new bank. As of publication, the receivership committees of the old banks, on behalf of its creditors, control their stakes in the new banks while the recently established State Bank Shares Management Company controls the state’s shares. The banks are run as profit-seeking companies and it is the policy of the government to ensure fair competition. A number of smaller banks and financial institutions are also active on the market.
Stock Exchange
The OMX Nordic Exchange operates the market for securities in Iceland and trades various products. Activity has been limited since the crash, but the infrastructure is in place. In 2010 99% of all volume on the OMX exchange in Iceland was in bonds. Daily turnover was around $100 million in bonds and $1 million in equities. The Central Bank frequently issues and auctions ISK-denominated government bonds and welcomes foreign participation.
Background:
Settled by Norwegian and Celtic (Scottish and Irish) immigrants during the late 9th and 10th centuries A.D., Iceland boasts the world's oldest functioning legislative assembly, the Althing, established in 930. Independent for over 300 years, Iceland was subsequently ruled by Norway and Denmark. Fallout from the Askja volcano of 1875 devastated the Icelandic economy and caused widespread famine. Over the next quarter century, 20% of the island's population emigrated, mostly to Canada and the US. Limited home rule from Denmark was granted in 1874 and complete independence attained in 1944. The second half of the 20th century saw substantial economic growth driven primarily by the fishing industry. The economy diversified greatly after the country joined the European Economic Area in 1994, but Iceland was especially hard hit by the global financial crisis in the years following 2008. Literacy, longevity, and social cohesion are first rate by world standards.
Government type: constitutional republic
Capital: name: Reykjavik time difference: UTCIndependence: 1 December 1918 (became a sovereign state under the Danish Crown); 17 June 1944 (from Denmark)
National holiday: Independence Day, 17 June (1944)
Constitution: 16 June 1944, effective 17 June 1944; amended many times
Legal system: civil law system based on Danish law; has not accepted compulsory ICJ jurisdiction
Suffrage: 18 years of age; universal
Government:
Chief of state: President Olafur Ragnar GRIMSSON (since 1 August 1996) head of government: Prime Minister Johanna SIGURDARDOTTIR (since 1 February 2009); cabinet: Cabinet appointed by the prime minister elections: president, a largely ceremonial post, elected by popular vote for a four-year term (no term limits); election last held on 28 June 2004 (next to be held in June 2012); following legislative elections, the leader of the majority party or the leader of the majority coalition usually the prime minister note: the presidential election of 28 June 2008 was not held because Olafur Ragnar GRIMSSON had no challengers; he was sworn in on 1 August 2008 2004 election results: Olafur Ragnar GRIMSSON elected president; percent of vote - Olafur Ragnar GRIMSSON 85.6%, Baldur AGUSTSSON 12.5%, Astthor MAGNUSSON 1.9%;